Saturday, December 24, 2011

Will the Russian Winter Turn Into An Arab Spring?

Will the Russian Winter turn into an Arab Spring? In 1991, the world watched as the Soviet Union disappeared after a failed coup to overthrow President Mikhail Gorbachev. During the past month, the world has been wondering if Russia is in the middle of another government upheaval that may change the course of history. It is too soon to determine whether Vladimir Putin and Dimitry Medvedev will continue to hold their country's top two leadership positions; however, I predict that they will not lead as long as they had anticipated.

On February 11, 2011, I discussed some of the underlying reasons why Egypt's President Mubarak was forced from power. I stated: "[i]t was a combination of Mubarak's dictatorial rule, routine police brutality, a suspended constitution, and poor living conditions for the average Egyptian that fueled the revolution. However, social media platforms and technologies such as Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, and texting enabled the Egyptian people to political crowdsource and communicate with each other to discuss their unhappiness with Mubarak's 30 year reign and to coordinate a strategy to try to create change."

Russia has some of the same problems that plagued Egypt. Former President Putin and current President Medvedev are seen as dictators, there is rampant police brutality and political corruption, recent constitutional changes that have benefited Putin and Medvedev, and major economic challenges. These issues plus social media missteps by Medvedev and Putin have fueled anger that may foment change. According to published reports, Medvedev/Putin may have also utilized the Russian secret police to try to block protestors from using social media. This is the same tactic that Egypt's Mubarak tried and it failed miserably.

The international community first noticed that the Russian people may have finally grown weary of Putin's stranglehold over the Russian government in late November during a mixed martial arts fight between Russia's Fedor Emelianenko and America's Jeff "The Snowman" Monson. After the fight Putin stepped into the ring to congratulate the winner and the crowd booed Putin. According to the BBC, the scene was uploaded to YouTube and subsequently viewed more than 2.5 million times.

In Russia, booing Putin during a public event was seen as a major signal that there may be underlying problems with his iron grip on the country. Subsequently, during the recent election there were numerous allegations that Putin's party may have participated in electoral fraud. Widespread anger and protests against Putin are increasing daily and instead of properly addressing the concerns of the Russian people Putin is generally ignoring them and acting as a Czar. Therefore, I would not be surprised if the Russian Winter turns into an Arab Spring.

To learn more about these issues you may contact me at www.shearlaw.com.

Copyright 2011 by the Law Office of Bradley S. Shear, LLC. All rights reserved.

Social Media May Decrease Law Firm Revenues

There still appears to be a major disconnect between lawyers and social media. The Wall Street Journal Law Blog recently asked the question: "2012:The Year Law Firms Ditch Geezer Image and Get Tweeting?" Most of the Wall Street Journal's sources for the post were marketers and not practicing lawyers who actively tweet so I would like to see the Wall Street Journal create a follow up post that asks practicing lawyers if Twitter is an effective marketing tool for lawyers.

I believe that the overwhelming majority of practicing lawyers who actively tweet may state that social media usage does not increase law firm revenues. I have been tweeting from @bradleyshear since June 15, 2009, have tweeted more than 3,200 times, and I have a Twitter grade from Twitter Grader of 94/100. Despite these social media statistics, I have never had a client mention on his intake form that he hired me because of my tweets.

Over the past several months, I have had several people approach me during networking events and conferences to tell me that my blog has helped reduce their need for legal services. When this has occurred I have asked how and the general response has been that for some issues my blog provides enough information that they don't feel they need to spend more money on legal fees. One potential client reiterated the old saying "Why buy the cow when you can get the milk for free."

Instead of increasing law firm revenues social media usage by lawyers may decrease law firm revenues. The World War II saying, "Loose lips sink ships" may come into play when lawyers tweet and/or blog. Therefore, before you spend your firm's marketing dollars on a social media evangelist who wants to teach your firm how to tweet you may want to peel back the social media onion because you may be surprised with what you may find.

To learn more about these issues you may contact me at http://www.shearlaw.com/.

Copyright 2011 by the Law Office of Bradley S. Shear, LLC. All rights reserved.